Brexit could slow production growth

IHS Automotive has downgraded growth expectations for light vehicle production following Brexit.

Its analysis is based on a simulation of the changes to the global sales forecast applied to the June light vehicle production forecast, but does not take into account any changes to tariffs.

According to its analysis, light vehicle production will grow between 2016 and 2018, but this will now be more muted.

It expects global production to hit 91.384 million units, 173,000 units below its June forecast, reducing the calendar year growth over 2015 to 3.0% from 3.2%.

A more significant reduction is seen in 2017, when it expects output at 92.331 million units compared to its June forecast of 93.515 million units. The reduction in output is 1.184 million units and reflects year on year growth of 1.0% compared to 2.1% anticipated in the current forecast.

Meanwhile, in 2018 it predicts a reduction in the forecast of 1.238 million units from 95.841 million units to 94.603 million units.