EVs part of ‘greatest transformation’

An increase in electric vehicles (EVs) is just one of several converging factors that could bring about the greatest transformation since the dawn of the automotive age according to IHS Markit.

Electric vehicles could make up 15 to 35% of total new vehicle sales globally in 2040, according to IHS Markit. The findings are part of a new research project – Reinventing the Wheel – that will be conducted over the first half of 2017.

‘The key question is whether we are approaching a transformative shift akin to the first decade of the 20th century, when the internal combustion engine, cheap gasoline, bicycle technology and mass production combined to usher in the automotive age,’ said Dr Daniel Yergin, vice chairman of IHS Markit and chairman of the study who wrote about the beginning of the automotive age in his most recent book, The Quest. ‘Converging developments along multiple tracks are leading us to focus on this important question.’

While electric vehicles constitute a small percentage of the world’s vehicle sales and are just one per cent of the ‘on-road’ fleet today, sales in 2016 are up more than 1,000% since 2010 – a trend that IHS Markit expects to continue with the potential to make electric vehicles more than one third of the new vehicle sales in 2040.

‘Significant advances in battery technology, financial support from governments, regulations and values of millennials will be key factors leading to increases in electric vehicle adoption,’ said Jim Burkhard, study co-director and chief of research at IHS Markit for crude oil markets and energy scenarios.

Reinventing the Wheel will focus on the world’s largest automotive markets – the US, Europe and China, as well as India – with projections out to the year 2040. The study, to be completed in 2017, will consist of two parts.