EVs only by 2035?
It’s been predicted that all new cars sold in Europe will be electric by 2035.
A Dutch bank, ING, believes economies of scale will drive down battery costs, leading to the wide uptake. Its prediction is more aggressive than many others, with the UK’s National Grid saying it expects 90% of new cars to be electric by 2050.
France meanwhile, has banned the sale of new petrol and diesel cars from 2040.
However, a report from ING said it believed pure electric cars would ‘become the rational choice for motorists in Europe’ sometime between 2017 and 2024, as their car showroom prices fall, their ranges increase and charging infrastructure becomes more widespread.
By 2024, the report’s authors forecast that in Germany the cost of ownership for an electric car – including buying and fuelling it – would be the same as a conventional petrol or diesel model.
It also said that motorists’ concerns over ‘range anxiety’ will evaporate in the 2020s as the distance between charges goes from the 100-150 miles of most models today to 400 miles and above in the next decade.
In line with this, Volvo has said it will no longer be launching petrol or diesel cars after 2019, and it’s expected many other carmakers will follow suit by focussing solely on electric models in the coming years.
The report warned though, that the shift to EVs could be costly for European manufacturers, who were trailing behind Asian and American rivals.
‘Europe’s competitive advantage in internal combustion engine powertrains disappears with the shift to battery electric vehicles,’ it said.